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Qualitative and Quantitative Methods in Food Safety Risk Assessment - Online

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Course Description

This 7-week online course provides participants with the opportunity to learn about methods on qualitative and quantitative risk assessment. Participants will learn and gain practical experience in building models, understand about stochastic processes, probabilistic risk assessment, how to include variability and uncertainty in models and will learn how to analyze probabilistic models in a risk assessment context. Learning by example, participants will be given exercises involving elements of real world risk assessments that are being used in current policy and risk management.

The course is based on Microsoft Excel and @RiskTM (an add-in to Excel). The online modules will describe and demonstrate various techniques and participants should then work individually and in groups to solidify their understanding of the lecture materials, and to build quantitative modeling and analysis skills.

Participants should have basic knowledge of probability and statistics and intermediate level skills in using Microsoft Excel 2003. We also strongly recommend Food Safety Risk Assessment as a prerequisite to this course.

Overview of Topics

Introduction to Risk Assessment

  • Recap of terms and concepts
  • Discussion of Risk Assessment Frameworks (Codex, WHO, EPA, OIE)
  • Exercise: Exploring and comparing frameworks with respect to risk assessment.

Introduction to Qualitative Risk Assessment

  • Terms and concepts
  • Approaches to qualitative risk assessment (scoring systems, risk matrix, hazard ranking)
  • Structuring a qualitative risk assessment
  • Understanding qualitative risk estimates
  • Case study of a qualitative risk assessment
  • Exercises: Developing a qualitative risk assessment for a microbe and a chemical in food or water.

Introduction to Quantitative Risk Assessment

  • Introduction to modeling
  • Introduction to deterministic risk assessment
  • Building a deterministic risk assessment model
  • Case study of a deterministic risk assessment
  • Exercises: Developing a deterministic risk assessment for a microbial and chemical system

Introduction to Probabilistic Modeling

  • Probability theory and key statistical measures
  • Introduction to probability distributions
  • Understanding Monte Carlo simulation
  • Using probabilistic software
  • Case study of a probabilistic risk assessment
  • Exercises: Building probabilistic models

Advanced Topics in Quantitative Risk Assessment

  • Phenomenon-based probability distributions
  • Approximations
  • Uncertainty vs. variability
  • Distinguishing uncertainty and variability in probabilistic models
  • Exercises: Understanding uncertainty and variability

Beyond the Risk Estimate

  • Analyzing risk assessment models: sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis
  • Presenting results and conclusions from risk assessments
  • Exercises: Building a risk assessment model for a microbe and a chemical in drinking water and presenting results